Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 7 hours ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 27 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 112th strongest of the 195 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 1:57PM EDT until May 27 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 44,118 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 22, 2026 · score 43 · 11.9 km
- September 3, 2026 · score 37 · 15.1 km
- July 22, 2026 · score 43 · 16.7 km
How we know
3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.90/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.1571, -77.0724 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (37 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 44.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-27T17:57:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.587db869723b0e34707960e6c366bc3b |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-05-27T17:57:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-05-27T17:59:12.289Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Caroline, VA; Essex, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA; King George, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 1:57PM EDT until May 27 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-05-27T14:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 3 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.587db869723b0e34707960e6c366bc3bb683a772.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a6893b4ce1c1d58f06d4a106208eebf7a4f5692f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4469e1f79900925cbf35ab21f571622d732902fb.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 E Lignum |
| Iem County | Culpeper |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | There was a call for trees down near the intersection of Elys Frd Road and Yellow Bottom Road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.240_-77.670_1779901500000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779901500000,"latitude":38.24,"longitude":-77.67},{"id":"iem_D_38.420_-77.800_1779899400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779899400000,"latitude":38.42,"longitude":-77.8}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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